Makerfield, UK – Polls opened in the Greater Manchester constituency of Makerfield earlier today, where voters will decide whether to send former Mayor of Greater Manchester and potential Labour leadership contender Andy Burnham to parliament.
Burnham faces stiff opposition from the right-wing Reform UK Party who, represented by local councillor Robert Kenyon and led by Nigel Farage, are seeking to gain their ninth seat in the House of Commons.
The by-election is being watched closely by Westminster, as Burnham is considered a favourite to replace unpopular Prime Minister Keir Starmer as the leader of the ruling Labour Party.
Makerfield’s previous MP, Josh Simons, stood down to give Burnham the chance to enter parliament and challenge Starmer in a leadership contest.
While Burnham has signalled that he would join a Labour leadership contest, he avoided discussing national politics while campaigning in Makerfield.
Burnham victory likely, but not guaranteed
Constituency polling has generally put Burnham ahead of Kenyon, with an Opinium poll estimating that 46% backed Labour to Reform’s 41%.
National favorability ratings also show that Burnham is the most popular Labour politician in the country; in May, he was the only Labour politician who enjoyed net positive approval amongst voters.
By contrast, the Labour government has been performing poorly. In recent local elections, Starmer’s party lost control of the Welsh parliament (Senedd) for the first time in the elected body’s history, along with over 1460 English council seats.
Starmer’s government has been heavily criticized for its U-turns on policies such as the winter fuel allowance, farmer’s inheritance tax and welfare reform.
Image Source: Raphael McMahon (own image)
Burnham, however, has been insulated from Labour’s waning support, with his tenure as Greater Manchester Mayor generally viewed positively by the British public; he has been credited with stimulating growth, protecting the city during the COVID-19 pandemic and capping public transport fares.
“I am supporting Andy Burnham because I believe in what he’s done for Manchester,” Vicky Redfern, a Burnham voter from Makerfield, told EU Reports.
Image Source: Raphael McMahon (own image)
His campaign has notably distanced the candidate from the ailing Labour party, with signs in Makerfield making no mention of Labour, instead urging voters to elect “Andy”.
Reform UK seems to face the opposite problem: On Kenyon’s placards in Makerfield, the party name appears more prominently than the candidate’s.
Though Reform led the vast majority of polls conducted since the 2024 election, their candidate Kenyon has been heavily criticized for his past comments on social media platforms, which have been dubbed prejudiced or conspiratorial.
The Restore/Reform split that could make Burnham MP and, eventually, PM
While it remains to be seen whether personal popularity or national political affiliation will be the deciding factor, Makerfield is set for a much closer race now compared to 2024, when Labour’s Josh Simons won 45.2% to Kenyon’s 18.7%.
But since 2024, Reform UK has gained traction, with many senior Conservative Party figures defecting to the far-right party.
Reform pledges to freeze all ‘non-essential’ immigration, leave the European Convention on Human Rights and scrap climate-change related net zero targets.
But experts say divisions among the far-right could hand Burnham the win in the crucial by-election.
Restore Britain, a party founded by ex-Reform MP Rupert Lowe in June 2025, represents an even more radically nativist platform than Nigel Farage’s party.
The new party has amassed considerable support, with one MP (Lowe), 31 councillors and approximately 96,000 members.
The party’s rise has become a political problem for Reform UK in Makerfield. According to polling seen by the Independent, Kenyon could be facing a defeat to Burnham because of a split in the right-wing vote between Reform and Restore.
Image Source: Raphael McMahon (own image)
According to that poll, Burnham would beat Kenyon 46% to 41%, while Restore would gain 7% in the Greater Manchester constituency. A united right, if this scenario is true, would therefore have enough support to win Makerfield.
However, supporters of Restore – many of whom are recent converts from Reform UK – seem uninterested in forming a coalition with Reform to defeat Labour on both a local and national level.
Restore activists cited Reform’s admission of former Conservative politicians such as Robert Jenrick and Suella Braverman into the party as proof that Farage’s outfit had lost its supposed anti-establishment credentials.
“Restore Britain is the only viable anti-establishment option that will give accurate representation to the people of Makerfield,” Thomas Moffitt, a Restore Britain activist who also goes by the alias Young Bob, told EU Reports while campaigning for Lowe’s party in Makerfield.
While Reform and Restore jostle for the right-wing vote in Makerfield, Burnham’s message is simple.
“Vote for hope, vote for Makerfield, that’s all,” Burnham told EU Reports after the final full day of campaigning.
Featured Image Description: Burnham’s supporters at Stubshaw Cross Community and Sports Club after his eve-of-poll rally
Image Credit: Raphael McMahon (own picture)
