Recent polling by the Centre of Sociological Investigations (CIS) suggests that the current ruling party of Spain could not only hold onto power, but extend their vote share from the last elections.
In a study published last week, the organisation projects that the Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE) will be the largest party, with the conservative Partido Popular (PP) and far-right Vox parties in second and third place, respectively.
However, a potential alliance between the two would make them the largest bloc, sharing more than 39% of the vote. The popularity of further-left parties fell, with Sumar halving its support from 12.3% in 2023 to 6.1%.
For an outright majority in the Spanish legislature, parties need 176 of the 350 seats in Congress. Since 2023, the PSOE party has ruled in a minority coalition with the left-wing Sumar party, with a seat total of 147.
The CIS is a public body attached to the Ministry of the Presidency, Justice and Relations with the Cortes (Spain’s parliament). The study was conducted through more than 5,000 interviews, and is the first to be conducted after the contentious eviction of Maricarmen Abascal, an 87-year-old pensioner whose eviction sparked widespread protests and encampments, and is credited with being a key cause of the early elections.
Polling by other organisations, such as the polling company 40db, suggest that PSOE will come second to the conservative Partido Popular. Prior to and immediately after calling the election, its polls showed PSOE trailing the conservative PP, who were projected to win 132 seats to PSOE’s 112.
This poll, published on October 9, four days after elections were announced, projected the far-right Vox party to double their seats from 33 to 66.
CIS data has generated criticism from some in Spanish society, who have accused both the study, and the organisation as a whole of being partisan. An editorial in Spanish newspaper El País, alleged that the organisation has a left-wing bias, evidenced in the makeup of study respondents.
Elections are scheduled for November 29, 2026. In Spain, the official campaign lasts 15 days, with the campaign beginning on November 13 and closing on the 27.
The director of 40db, Belén Barreiro, stressed in an interview with Spanish radio network Cadena Ser that “although the right clearly has the advantage, nothing is written in stone.”
Featured image: El presidente del Gobierno, Pedro Sánchez, durante su comparecencia al finalizar el Consejo Europeo
Source: La Moncloa
Author: Pool Moncloa / Borja Puig de la Bellacasa
