Kharkiv, Ukraine – Milorad Dodik, longtime leader of Bosnia’s Serbs, has stepped aside and nominated his successor after 27 years of being President of the Republika Srpska- the Serb-majority entity in Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Dodik, a domineering figure in the country’s post-war politics, was forced to step down following his conviction for defying the country’s internationally-appointed supervisor Christian Schmidt.
As leader of Bosnia’s Republika Srpska- which makes up roughly half of the country’s territory- Dodik has been criticised for his efforts to separate the region from Bosnia’s central institutions. In 2022 and 2023, he was sanctioned by the UK and the U.S. for undermining the Dayton Agreement, of which the Constitution of Bosnia & Herzegovina forms a central part, due to him attempting to transfer central government competences from Sarajevo to Republika Srpska and inciting ethnic hatred against Croats and Bosniak Muslims.
Bosnia and Herzegovina is composed of two entities: Republika Srpska and the Croat-Bosniak Federation. The sovereign state itself serves as the overarching framework, housing the nation’s central institutions.
Bosnia and Herzegovina was granted central sovereignty by the 1995 Dayton Peace Agreement- the key achievement of former U.S. President Bill Clinton’s peace efforts in the region- which joined Serbs, Croats and Bosniaks in an intricate federal system overseen by a high representative appointed by the international community.
The Dayton Peace Agreement also formally ended the Bosnian War, in which an estimated 100,000 people were killed between 1992 and 1995
Serbs in Republika Srpska have long pushed either for an independent state or for reunification with neighbouring Serbia, driven by the complexities of Bosnia’s political system and tensions with other ethnic groups. The international community, however, has shut down these pleas due to the possibility of renewed violence.
Dodik’s legal troubles stemmed from his refusal to acknowledge the authority of High Representative Christian Schmidt. Appointed in August 2021, Schmidt’s mandate has remained controversial because his leadership was not endorsed by the UN Security Council, as other high representatives had. This prompted China and Russia to declare his position as illegitimate.
Dodik’s rejection of Schmidt and his decisions reflects a broader pattern of non-recognition among Serb leaders in Bosnia- a stance sharply opposed by central government institutions in Sarajevo.
Dodik’s conviction, coupled with the August 18, 2025 rejection of his appeal by the High Court in Sarajevo, has resulted in his retroactive removal as President of Republika Srpska, effective June 12, 2025.
Authorities in Republika Srpska swiftly rejected the ruling and instead proposed holding a referendum on whether to accept the court’s decision.
Dodik’s decision to appoint a successor effectively closed the door on a referendum, as members of his party privately expressed concern that it was not the most effective path forward. Elections for a new president will now be held next month, with heir apparent Siniša Karan – who has also been sanctioned by U.S. authorities – likely to secure backing from Dodik loyalists.
This turn of events will likely be welcomed in Brussels, where officials have repeatedly urged unity and called on Bosnia’s ethnic groups to work together. In March, the EU’s external relations office warned Serb leaders to “refrain from provocative, divisive rhetoric and actions.”
By contrast, in EU member state Hungary- a close ally of Russia and regular adversary to EU officials- leaders will likely be dismayed. Prime Minister Viktor Orbán openly backed Dodik in August, hosting him in Budapest and declaring Hungary would not recognize the Bosnian court’s ruling.
While the Serb leader will now bow out of the arena, his influence will persist across Bosnia. Dodik’s battles with central institutions have shown the weakness of the Bosnian state in enforcing its authority, after an arrest warrant for him was ignored for over three months before he voluntarily turned himself in to the country’s High Court.
Even more concerning for European officials, the situation underscores how Russia leverages regional actors in the western Balkans to stir instability in what the EU regards as its own backyard.
As Bosnians begin to look ahead to the upcoming presidential elections in Republika Srpska, there is an opening for calmer politics. Whether domestic and international actors will seize that opportunity, however, remains uncertain.
Featured image:
Image: Milorad Dodik, 2019
Author: Mauro Borraro- European Commission
Source: Wikimedia Commons
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