Kharkiv, Ukraine – Voters in Moldova will take to the polling stations on Sunday, September 28 to elect their representatives in what analysts deem the most consequential parliamentary election in the country’s history.
Citizens will vote for either the ruling pro-EU ‘PAS’ party supported by President Maia Sandu, or the pro-Russian ‘BEP’ bloc led by former President Igor Dodon.
President Sandu had already approved a referendum on whether to enshrine the country’s path to EU membership in the Moldovan constitution nearly a year ago, on October 20, 2024.
Sunday’s election, however, comes at a key moment for the Eastern European nation, with the Russian invasion of neighbouring Ukraine and the threat of potential instability in the breakaway region of Transdniestria upping the stakes as outside observers in the European Union, Russia and Ukraine all vie for influence in the strategically-located nation.
Moldova gained independence in difficult circumstances in 1991, with liberal pro-Western forces leading the way to statehood while pro-Moscow rebels in the east of the country fought to establish their own quasi-state outside the control of the central government in Chisinau.
Today, the country finds itself in an awkward position. Having historically lurched from pro-Western and pro-Russian regimes, the nation has struggled to consolidate itself, as it has been geographically sandwiched between EU member state Romania and war-torn Ukraine, and often seen as peripheral to Europe.
With the 200km-long, 30km-wide breakaway Transdniestria region added into the mix – recognised by the Council of Europe as a Russian-occupied territory in 2022 – political stability has been hard to find.
The PAS government has committed itself to alignment with the EU by 2028, and therefore sees it as vital that the country is able to maintain its pro-EU direction over the next few years.
Western powers are also viewing the election with intense interest, demonstrated by the state visit of key EU leaders Emmanuel Macron, Friedrich Merz and Donald Tusk to the small country last month. Meanwhile, Russia has peddled multiple conspiracy theories that Western forces are planning to occupy the nation, or that the central government will attempt to seize back control of the Transdniestria region following the election.
Against this backdrop, the election campaign has been viciously contested, with accusations of interference and vote-buying leading to at least 74 arrests, and has resulted in the Central Electoral Commission banning exit polls for the election.
Incumbent President Sandu addressed the nation on Monday, September 22 to warn citizens of illegitimate influence by Russia. She stressed that the nation’s independence was at risk from both foreign and internal actors who “believe only in money”.
The election also comes at a difficult time for Moldova. Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the country’s economy was hit by a contraction of 5.9% and suffered an inflationary shock of nearly 30%, according to World Bank data.
The expiration of Ukraine’s gas transit agreement with Russia’s Gazprom in early 2025 resulted in the end of Moldova receiving heavily subsidized gas via the breakaway Transdniestria region. Such perils have forced the country to grapple with paying standard international prices, which exposes its fragility and casts doubt among citizens on the strength of the state.
The potential benefits of EU membership for Moldova are huge, though. From direct access to a single market of over 450 million people, investment in the country’s economy by way of the EU Regional Development Fund and support for strong national institutions, there is the potential for the country to leap forward in the same way that its neighbours across Eastern Europe have been able to.
As the election date draws nearer and political forces fight for citizens’ votes, the people of Moldova have been left with two choices: continue on the PAS government’s current path in the hope of gaining EU membership, or aligning with Russia in the hope of avoiding the fate that has befallen its neighbour Ukraine.
Featured image: Maia Sandu via X
