The Christian Democratic Union (CDU) has retained its position as the most popular party in the north-western state of North-Rhine Westphalia, which borders the Netherlands and Belgium,winning 33.3% of the vote in local elections throughout the state. Meanwhile the decline in the Social Democrats’ popularity in Germany’s former industrial heartland persisted.
The latter’s vote share fell slightly to 22.1%, while the that of the Greens fell to 13.5%, representing a decline of 6.5%
Turnout for these elections, in which the residents of Germany’s most populous state voted for city council candidates and metropolitan mayors, was unexpectedly high. 56.8% of eligible voters cast their ballots, an increase of almost 5% from 2020.
Higher turnout, coupled with the strong performance of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party- provisionally classified as a right-wing extremist organisation by domestic intelligence- have been widely read as a protest vote rather than evidence of a deeper shift to the right in North-Rhine Westphalia.
In Gelsenkirchen, a city of 265,000 in the industrial Ruhr region, the AfD candidate for mayor, former soldier Norbert Emmerich, secured enough votes to enter the run-off elections. The party also emerged as the largest bloc on the city council.
Nonetheless, it is highly unlikely that Emmerich will win the run-off as supporters of the mainstream parties and the Left (Die Linke) are expected to support the SPD candidate.
Observers have long warned that Gelsenkirchen’s struggles, from the decline of heavy industry to underfunded infrastructure and failing public services, could provide fertile ground for the messaging of the AfD.
Geology, social class and voting patterns
In light of its status as Germany’s most populous state and other demographic factors- approximately a quarter of the population are of foreign origin- North-Rhine Westphalia is often treated as a microcosm of the country as a whole. The AfD’s performance, then, may lead one to draw contradictory conclusions.
On the one hand, the party has increased its vote share from 4.5% to 14.5% in local elections since 2020, but on the other, its vote share still lags considerably behind the national vote share in the last parliamentary elections (20.8%).
It is possible, however, to discern a clear pattern from the geographical distribution of votes for the AfD: they perform considerably better in constituencies and municipalities north of the A40 motorway, often referred to as a ‘social equator’ in the state.
Areas to the north of the motorway experience considerably higher levels of socioeconomic deprivation than those to the south, a phenomenon which can be attributed to their influence- or lack thereof- in the coal mining industry.
In mines located to the south of the A40, coal can be found much closer to the surface in comparison to those in the north, making mining far more labour intensive. As a result, municipalities to the north of the A40 are home to larger mines, as well as historically working-class neighbourhoods in which miners have lived.
Conditions also affected the pace of industrialisation in the 19th and 20th centuries, as well as deindustrialisation in recent decades. As fewer people were employed in mining to the south of the A40, the transition to a service-led economy was smoother and could be achieved earlier while, to the north, the transition was more fraught and took place only recently, with the last plant in Gelsenkirchen closing in 2000. Conversely, the last plant in Bochum ceased operation in 1973.
These starkly contrasting socioeconomic trajectories are frequently cited as an explanation for the divergence in voting patterns in both cities, and a comparison of the local election results in Bochum and Gelsenkirchen suggests a correlation between the cities’ fortunes and voting patterns.
However, polling data is insufficient to definitively claim a causal relationship. In Gelsenkirchen, the AfD secured 30% of the vote for the city council while in Bochum, the party only received 18%, two percentage points below its national average in the 2025 federal elections.
Centre holds and glimmers of hope for progressive parties despite Musk’s intervention
Despite the unprecedented gains of the AfD in the region, over three-quarters of the electorate in North-Rhine Westphalia have continued to support parties which have categorically ruled out co-operating with the far-right outfit, which suggests that the party’s ability to exercise direct influence over local politics in the state will remain limited.
In Cologne, the state’s largest city and only municipality with over one million inhabitants, the AfD increased its vote share by 4.7%, but still failed to win 10% of the overall vote, while the left increased its vote share by a similar margin to 10.8% as part of a successful round of elections.
The mayoral race in Cologne will be decided in a run-off between Torsten Burmester of the SPD and the Greens’ candidate Berîvan Aymaz.
Aymaz emerged as the frontrunner after the first ballot, receiving 28.1% of the vote and has developed a reputation as a popular figure among supporters of the left, as well as in her own party.
It appears that Aymaz’s campaign pledge to deliver affordable housing for students and those in vocational education has cut through, as she looks set to withstand the intervention of X owner Elon Musk, who claimed that “either Germany votes AfD or Germany is finished”.
The comment appeared under a post from a conservative Hungarian news site, which misrepresents a ‘fairness agreement’ that has governed debate in Cologne’s local elections since 1998 and which aims to encourage parties ‘not to campaign at the expense of those who live among us’, as a blanket ban on discussing the effects of immigration.
In an interview with German newspaper taz, Aymaz was defiant, stating: “It is no surprise that Cologne of all places has been made a target in this culture war by right-wingers and populists — our city has, after all, always stood up against racism and the AfD.”
Featured image:
Image: Cologne’s Postal Picture
Source: creyesk via Flickr
License: Creative Commons Licenses
